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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 36 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 28 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 26 games
58%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 24 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Windranger
Windranger
Save- · 21 game
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Pure~ · 20 games
65%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 23 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Echo · 13 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 12 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
746 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 635 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 290 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
438 picks · 261 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 1181 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 477 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 711 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
384 picks · 247 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total68% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
BETBOOM TEAM 60%Team Tidebound 40%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
47% · 360 games50% · 243 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastgpK~
50% · 203 games51% · 170 games
Abaddonshiro
Abaddon
Axe
AxeMieRo
47% · 186 games58% · 274 games
Bristlebackniu
Bristleback
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerKataomi
47% · 45 games56% · 190 games
Cheny`
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
51% · 268 games40% · 185 games
Dark WillowpLAnet
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct28:6
BETBOOM TEAM 59%Team Tidebound 41%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 27:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKiritych
57% · 184 games43% · 98 games
Troll Warlordshiro
Troll Warlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
48% · 156 games46% · 365 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Slardar
SlardargpK~
53% · 158 games43% · 69 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Jakiro
JakiroKataomi
54% · 316 games52% · 312 games
RingmasterpLAnet
Ringmaster
Muerta
MuertaSave-
53% · 197 games49% · 167 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 68%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2