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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
42%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
59%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 18 games
72%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
gpK~ · 17 games
47%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 46 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 36 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 29 games
72%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
78%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
490 picks · 217 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 639 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 728 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 574 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 359 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
393 picks · 165 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 793 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
340 picks · 943 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:20
BETBOOM TEAM 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
46% · 264 games47% · 102 games
LifestealerPure~
Lifestealer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightgpK~
52% · 164 games49% · 218 games
Faceless VoidTopson
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
46% · 154 games57% · 55 games
SlardarRAMZES666
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
45% · 148 games56% · 151 game
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 162 games50% · 366 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Game 2prediction correct22:38
BETBOOM TEAM 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverNightfall
56% · 115 games50% · 130 games
RazorTopson
Razor
Pangolier
PangoliergpK~
53% · 348 games45% · 137 games
LifestealerPure~
Lifestealer
Visage
VisageMieRo
46% · 52 games53% · 256 games
Centaur WarrunnerRAMZES666
Centaur Warrunner
Io
IoTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 95 games54% · 52 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Tiny
TinySave-
48% · 282 games48% · 317 games
RubickWhitemon
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2