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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 0:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Brightwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Tusk
Tusk
marblue · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Manic · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
50%

Team Bright

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 3 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 476 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
591 picks · 936 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 406 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 418 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 371 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1209 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Team Bright
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:33
Big Brain 39%Team Bright 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 1:24:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
46% · 58 games58% · 142 games
Leshracphoenix
Leshrac
Spectre
SpectreManic
50% · 45 games51% · 248 games
ClockwerkUndyne_
Clockwerk
Doom
DoomMolasses
47% · 138 games47% · 44 games
BrewmasterIrving
Brewmaster
Mirana
Miranamarblue
48% · 172 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiTz.
49% · 21 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 65%
Series resultTeam Bright 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1