Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Bleed Esports
Rubick
PlayHard · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 10 games
Tiny
Topson · 9 games
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Topson · 7 games
Slarksignature
JaCkky · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
797 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 404 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 562 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 421 bans
Nature's Prophet
456 picks · 740 bans
Snapfire
415 picks · 293 bans
Death Prophet
413 picks · 839 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 865 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Blacklist International 47%Bleed Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 35:00.
Game 2prediction correct44:15
Blacklist International 47%Bleed Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 55:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 53%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2