ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 8 games
Bounty Hunter
Mac · 6 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Skem · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 454 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 413 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
Lion
240 picks · 218 bans
Vengeful Spirit
238 picks · 130 bans
Nature's Prophet
231 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
Pangolier
228 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Geek Fam
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total54% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
Blacklist International 46%Geek Fam 54%
The model gave 54% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 39:40.
Game 2prediction correct35:33
Blacklist International 46%Geek Fam 54%
The model gave 54% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 46:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 54%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2