Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Abed · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 2 games
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 35 games
Rubick
Ari · 30 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 27 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 22 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
374 picks · 632 bans
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 362 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 440 bans
Weaver
298 picks · 540 bans
Rubick
285 picks · 174 bans
Hoodwink
284 picks · 176 bans
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:23
Blacklist International 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by OG in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterGabbi
Shadow FiendTimado
UrsaNatsumi
Pangolierbzm
PuckAbed
HoodwinkAri
SnapfireTims
BrewmasterWisper
EnchantressJaunuel
MarciCeb
Game 2prediction correct40:24
Blacklist International 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Chaos KnightTimado
Ember SpiritAbed
Tinybzm
Centaur WarrunnerGabbi
EnigmaWisper
HoodwinkTims
SnapfireAri
WarlockJaunuel
Elder TitanCeb
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2