ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Rubick
Oli · 19 games
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 14 games
Batridersignature
Q · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Q · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
239 picks · 279 bans
Dark Willow
238 picks · 108 bans
Vengeful Spirit
229 picks · 268 bans
Phoenix
206 picks · 265 bans
Treant Protector
203 picks · 437 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 421 bans
Earth Spirit
180 picks · 280 bans
Earthshaker
176 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total54% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:40
Blacklist International 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 49:17.
Game 2prediction missed26:31
Blacklist International 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:47.
Game 3prediction missed12:41
Blacklist International 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 54%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3