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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
70%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
AhFu · 7 games
29%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
57%
Marci
Marcioften banned
MidOne · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
379 picks · 370 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 346 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 221 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
275 picks · 275 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
200 picks · 147 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
197 picks · 108 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 250 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
185 picks · 509 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:38
Blacklist International 61%Team SMG 39%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Team SMG in 40:49.
Game 2prediction missed31:18
Blacklist International 61%Team SMG 39%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Team SMG in 38:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 61%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2