ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:1
UB Warriorwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
UB Warrior
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
179 picks · 376 bans
Grimstroke
173 picks · 154 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Dark Willow
164 picks · 70 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
145 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:36
Blacklist International 85%UB Warrior 15%
The model gave 85% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by UB Warrior in 33:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 85%
Series resultUB Warrior 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1