Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Rubick
PlayHard · 15 games
Silencersignature
DuBu · 10 games
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 7 games
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 7 games
Slarkoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 5 games
Army Geniuses
Pugnasignature
db- · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
Batridersignature
Yowe · 10 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Varizh · 10 games
Miranasignature
Jhocam · 10 games
Rubick
Jhocam · 9 games
Doomoften banned
db- · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 599 bans
Disruptor
570 picks · 495 bans
Beastmaster
463 picks · 1132 bans
Doom
461 picks · 840 bans
Ember Spirit
413 picks · 1057 bans
Enchantress
391 picks · 555 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 846 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 214 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:6
Bleed Esports 51%Army Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJaCkky
MorphlingYowe
Abaddoniceiceice
MagnusinYourdreaM
TechiesDJ
Batriderdb-
EnchantressDuBu
Spirit BreakerJhocam
48% · 103 games
SilencerVarizh
Game 2prediction missed29:9
Bleed Esports 50%Army Geniuses 50%
The model gave 50% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Faceless VoidinYourdreaM
Beastmastericeiceice
KunkkaYowe
Dark WillowDJ
Pugnadb-
SilencerDuBu
Spirit BreakerJhocam
53% · 257 games
MiranaVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 50%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2