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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 15 games
40%
Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 9 games
89%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DuBu · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 7 games
57%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 7 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 5 games
60%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
60%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 491 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
457 picks · 1100 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
447 picks · 807 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1038 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 832 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
381 picks · 545 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 208 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:9
Bleed Esports 48%Blacklist International 52%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 40:53.
Game 2prediction correct8:28
Bleed Esports 48%Blacklist International 52%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 35:59.
Game 3prediction correct22:26
Bleed Esports 48%Blacklist International 52%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 1:01:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 52%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3