Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Poloson · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 8 games
Lifestealersignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Troll Warlordsignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Hoodwink
DJ · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
Execration
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
Techies
Shanks · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
cml · 6 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
421 picks · 608 bans
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 383 bans
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 140 bans
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 576 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 151 bans
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 656 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 339 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength61% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:30
Bleed Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightJaCkky
BeastmasterTino-
Shadow FiendEmo
SvenAbat
Slardarzeal
ClockwerkShanks
EarthshakerPoloson
Enchantresscml
DisruptorSe
Game 2prediction missed15:36
Bleed Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 25:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidJaCkky
RazorAbat
Void SpiritEmo
MarciTino-
Dragon Knightzeal
WeaverShanks
Witch DoctorSe
Crystal Maidencml
GrimstrokePoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 51%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2