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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 14 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 12 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 12 games
42%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kuku · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Topson · 9 games
44%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%
Slark
Slarksignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 19 games
79%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 16 games
88%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 15 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
844 picks · 596 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
610 picks · 421 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 427 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
505 picks · 807 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
452 picks · 932 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
452 picks · 309 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
401 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 66%
Hero pool strength61% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
Bleed Esports 23%Talon Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
45% · 207 games59% · 275 games
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Doom
Doomiceiceice
45% · 195 games52% · 91 game
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Rubick
RubickDJ
48% · 509 games45% · 135 games
ZeusMikoto
Zeus
Enchantress
EnchantressDuBu
54% · 236 games55% · 621 game
TinyQ
Tiny
43% · 25 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct39:46
Bleed Esports 24%Talon Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:03:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreJaCkky
54% · 104 games46% · 100 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Beastmaster
Beastmastericeiceice
51% · 350 games53% · 262 games
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Jakiro
JakiroDuBu
38% · 100 games51% · 215 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Rubick
RubickDJ
48% · 669 games54% · 506 games
TinyQ
Tiny
54% · 140 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 87%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2