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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
DJ · 9 games
56%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
DJ · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 5 games
60%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 13 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 663 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 585 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
407 picks · 375 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 725 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 997 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
Bleed Esports 36%Talon Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckEmo
47% · 123 games52% · 125 games
WeaverAkashi
Weaver
Tiny
TinyJaCkky
52% · 141 game40% · 115 games
ZeusCHYuan
Zeus
Timbersaw
Timbersawzeal
46% · 150 games60% · 95 games
SlardarWs
Slardar
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSe
52% · 114 games45% · 136 games
UndyingPonyo
Undying
Windranger
WindrangerPoloson
63% · 88 games45% · 145 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed26:18
Bleed Esports 37%Talon Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJaCkky
46% · 130 games44% · 89 games
ZeusCHYuan
Zeus
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEmo
49% · 74 games56% · 120 games
WeaverAkashi
Weaver
Axe
Axezeal
48% · 41 game55% · 45 games
Legion CommanderWs
Legion Commander
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPoloson
49% · 143 games52% · 206 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
49% · 161 game52% · 89 games
Treant ProtectorPonyo
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct29:40
Bleed Esports 38%Talon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:10:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJaCkky
54% · 125 games48% · 95 games
ZeusCHYuan
Zeus
Lycan
Lycanzeal
51% · 21 game48% · 125 games
LifestealerAkashi
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEmo
54% · 33 games38% · 39 games
AxeWs
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPoloson
60% · 125 games42% · 102 games
MuertaJhocam
Muerta
Batrider
BatriderSe
57% · 144 games42% · 87 games
BanePonyo
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 74%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3