FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blue Submarinewin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nolifer5loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Nolifer5
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
471 picks · 593 bans
Muerta
463 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
453 picks · 560 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 534 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 777 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 475 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 886 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Blue Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Blue Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Blue Submarine 55%Nolifer5 45%
The model gave 55% on Blue Submarine — the game was taken by Blue Submarine.
Game 2prediction missed
Blue Submarine 55%Nolifer5 45%
The model gave 55% on Blue Submarine — the game was taken by Nolifer5.
Game 3prediction correct
Blue Submarine 55%Nolifer5 45%
The model gave 55% on Blue Submarine — the game was taken by Blue Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlue Submarine · 55%
Series resultBlue Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3