BOOM Esports vs Heroic — prediction BDD2ЗК · Dota 2

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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

BOOM Esportsloss 1:2

series probability

41%59%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Heroicwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreakeroften banned

Ws · 7 games

29%

Phoenixoften banned

xNova · 5 games

Treant Protectoroften banned

xNova · 5 games

60%

Lion

BoBoKa · 4 games

25%

Morphlingoften banned

Natsumi · 4 games

25%

Primal Beastoften banned

Sacred · 4 games

75%

Pugnaoften banned

Mjz · 4 games

50%

Terrorbladeoften banned

Natsumi · 4 games

50%

Heroic

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

253 picks · 430 bans

52%

Muerta

225 picks · 317 bans

50%

Phoenix

222 picks · 353 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

209 picks · 281 bans

52%

Dark Willow

206 picks · 98 bans

53%

Tusk

206 picks · 192 bans

46%

Treant Protector

188 picks · 359 bans

54%

Kunkka

182 picks · 509 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%

Hero pool strength55% Heroic

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% Heroic

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct9:32

BOOM Esports 45%Heroic 55%

The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 27:35.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo