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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 1:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Heroicloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 5 games
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 4 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 4 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
50%

Heroic

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
K1 · 2 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
Scofield · 2 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KJ · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Davai · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
KJ · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 438 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
238 picks · 370 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
223 picks · 294 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:12
BOOM Esports 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonPakazs
54% · 59 games30% · 6 games
Phantom LancerK1
Phantom Lancer
Magnus
MagnusILICH-
50% · 170 games43% · 84 games
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPanda
53% · 71 game50% · 91 game
BatriderDavai
Batrider
53% · 77 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
50% · 42 games
Vengeful SpiritKJ
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 58%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1