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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Hyde · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
78%

iG Vitality

Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Windranger
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
100%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 178 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 484 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 342 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 529 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
249 picks · 418 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
242 picks · 314 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
235 picks · 487 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 18%
Hero pool strength58% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
BOOM Esports 75%iG Vitality 25%
The model gave 75% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyPalos
53% · 45 games44% · 253 games
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
Void Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
42% · 96 games53% · 133 games
Monkey Kingukiyo
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
59% · 68 games
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
59% · 58 games
Pangolier
PangolierTims
44% · 119 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 89%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1