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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leviatanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 24 games
58%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 15 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Pakazs · 13 games
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%

Leviatan

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
kpii · 4 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 3 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Sammyboy · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sammyboy · 2 games
100%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 690 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 609 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 384 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 746 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 751 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 1029 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Leviatan
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
BOOM Esports 65%Leviatan 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerPakazs
49% · 131 game46% · 14 games
Shadow FiendStojkov
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsDarkMago
47% · 136 games55% · 204 games
TinyMnz
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSacred
41% · 60 games51% · 128 games
Razorkpii
Razor
Io
IoPanda
52% · 72 games53% · 53 games
MarciXepher
Marci
Game 2prediction missed30:31
BOOM Esports 66%Leviatan 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Leviatan in 45:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverPakazs
51% · 60 games47% · 39 games
JuggernautMnz
Juggernaut
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
49% · 220 games46% · 139 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
47% · 175 games51% · 203 games
Marskpii
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanda
55% · 50 games54% · 124 games
EarthshakerXepher
Earthshaker
Game 3prediction correct43:23
BOOM Esports 65%Leviatan 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 45:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPakazs
49% · 126 games67% · 27 games
BristlebackMnz
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
54% · 77 games52% · 115 games
LeshracStojkov
Leshrac
Enigma
EnigmaSacred
46% · 67 games52% · 157 games
Marskpii
Mars
Io
IoPanda
45% · 49 games30% · 20 games
Shadow ShamanXepher
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 78%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3