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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Weaver
Weaversignature
Skem · 17 games
82%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 13 games
62%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 18 games
56%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Mac · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 436 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 693 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 536 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
429 picks · 290 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 600 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
369 picks · 590 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
340 picks · 504 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 311 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total55% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
BOOM Esports 47%Polaris Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerJaCkky
49% · 94 games48% · 140 games
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
47% · 207 games56% · 122 games
Keeper of the LightMac
Keeper of the Light
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
51% · 181 game53% · 52 games
SlardarForce
Slardar
Marci
MarciTims
50% · 45 games49% · 228 games
TinyBoomy
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleSkem
42% · 15 games
Game 2prediction missed26:21
BOOM Esports 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
40% · 40 games57% · 57 games
JuggernautNatsumi
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYopaj
48% · 142 games54% · 225 games
PuckMac
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFbz
47% · 95 games52% · 128 games
Keeper of the LightBoomy
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTims
47% · 97 games57% · 38 games
MarciForce
Marci
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSkem
42% · 74 games
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 55%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2