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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 19 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 19 games
68%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
84%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%

Talon Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Hyde · 11 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
100%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 8 games
63%
Marci
Marcisignature
Q · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 7 games
71%
Medusa
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
596 picks · 459 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 922 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 590 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 183 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 467 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
335 picks · 384 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
321 picks · 197 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 587 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:9
BOOM Esports 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
46% · 290 games60% · 238 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyYopaj
51% · 440 games52% · 230 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
40% · 138 games52% · 341 game
Marskpii
Mars
Rubick
RubickTims
47% · 224 games54% · 208 games
MiranaQ
Mirana
Warlock
WarlockSkem
45% · 41 game52% · 116 games
DisruptorHyde
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed16:36
BOOM Esports 61%Talon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorJaCkky
56% · 164 games44% · 184 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
51% · 116 games48% · 233 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaYopaj
52% · 153 games48% · 43 games
Necrophoskpii
Necrophos
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
50% · 146 games46% · 143 games
DawnbreakerHyde
Dawnbreaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
58% · 98 games49% · 74 games
MarciQ
Marci
Game 3prediction correct33:6
BOOM Esports 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJaCkky
40% · 156 games44% · 38 games
Alchemist23savage
Alchemist
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFbz
53% · 70 games48% · 155 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
45% · 141 game61% · 81 game
Enigmakpii
Enigma
Chen
ChenSkem
45% · 42 games59% · 106 games
MarciQ
Marci
Rubick
RubickTims
44% · 135 games60% · 164 games
Monkey KingHyde
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 72%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3