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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 23 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 16 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 26 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 21 game
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 20 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
79%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 394 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 550 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 505 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 209 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 641 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
384 picks · 431 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 580 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
350 picks · 890 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total64% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
BOOM Esports 43%Talon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMac
45% · 347 games45% · 183 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinJaCkky
51% · 160 games61% · 62 games
LycanWs
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusFbz
47% · 164 games59% · 222 games
BristlebackNatsumi
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderJaunuel
47% · 347 games52% · 446 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Clockwerk
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTims
46% · 289 games50% · 394 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct24:33
BOOM Esports 42%Talon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingJaCkky
54% · 189 games50% · 322 games
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
54% · 220 games45% · 150 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusFbz
51% · 208 games41% · 95 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Lion
LionTims
51% · 272 games48% · 271 game
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorJaunuel
52% · 73 games54% · 124 games
Nyx AssassinJhocam
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 64%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2