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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 23 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 21 game
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fbz · 17 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
65%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 56 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 46 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 32 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 32 games
56%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 690 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 696 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 403 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
414 picks · 315 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
372 picks · 859 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
370 picks · 970 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 501 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
363 picks · 423 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
BOOM Esports 31%Team Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
44% · 71 game48% · 125 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Leshrac
LeshracArmel
53% · 95 games54% · 181 game
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
55% · 209 games47% · 186 games
MarsATF
Mars
Tiny
TinyTims
52% · 293 games50% · 34 games
TinkerSneyking
Tinker
Warlock
WarlockJaunuel
49% · 54 games47% · 196 games
WeaverCr1t-
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct11:20
BOOM Esports 30%Team Falcons 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
44% · 108 games46% · 89 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarArmel
46% · 80 games49% · 102 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Dazzle
DazzleJabz
52% · 37 games51% · 27 games
RikiMalr1ne
Riki
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterTims
51% · 82 games56% · 107 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Jakiro
JakiroJaunuel
57% · 144 games51% · 126 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct16:30
BOOM Esports 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightArmel
52% · 72 games53% · 101 game
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
51% · 308 games48% · 366 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Night Stalker
Night StalkerJabz
58% · 80 games45% · 30 games
DazzleATF
Dazzle
Muerta
MuertaJaunuel
48% · 261 game52% · 29 games
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
Ancient Apparition
Riki
RikiTims
52% · 38 games45% · 233 games
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 82%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3