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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Kukuysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
76%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 18 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 15 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%

Team Kukuys

Marci
Marci
Palos · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
467 picks · 382 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 543 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
385 picks · 488 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 608 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 200 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
365 picks · 411 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 584 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
342 picks · 866 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total83% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
BOOM Esports 69%Team Kukuys 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinJaCkky
47% · 86 games45% · 44 games
Phantom AssassinAbat
Phantom Assassin
Lina
LinaMac
41% · 52 games49% · 98 games
EarthshakerArmel
Earthshaker
Doom
DoomFbz
52% · 91 game58% · 280 games
LionPonyo
Lion
Batrider
BatriderTims
52% · 150 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJaunuel
47% · 43 games
Game 2prediction correct23:23
BOOM Esports 69%Team Kukuys 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMac
42% · 96 games47% · 293 games
GyrocopterAbat
Gyrocopter
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
44% · 161 game51% · 267 games
Dragon KnightArmel
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
45% · 116 games54% · 118 games
Ogre MagiPonyo
Ogre Magi
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
62% · 76 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJaunuel
53% · 229 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 83%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2