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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kukuyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 23 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 20 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%

Team Kukuys

Marci
Marci
Palos · 7 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Yowe · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 398 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 557 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 513 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
404 picks · 212 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 655 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
392 picks · 437 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 586 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 902 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total78% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
BOOM Esports 67%Team Kukuys 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
45% · 40 games51% · 188 games
AlchemistAbat
Alchemist
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
44% · 197 games49% · 95 games
Keeper of the LightArmel
Keeper of the Light
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
54% · 125 games53% · 354 games
Shadow DemonPonyo
Shadow Demon
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiJaunuel
48% · 50 games
Batrider
BatriderTims
51% · 225 games
Game 2prediction correct27:22
BOOM Esports 65%Team Kukuys 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackFbz
56% · 80 games54% · 260 games
AlchemistAbat
Alchemist
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
57% · 108 games43% · 98 games
Queen of PainArmel
Queen of Pain
Tiny
TinyMac
50% · 117 games45% · 161 game
LichPonyo
Lich
Pugna
PugnaTims
54% · 72 games
Tusk
TuskJaunuel
45% · 142 games
Game 3prediction missed26:47
BOOM Esports 65%Team Kukuys 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 52:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
42% · 67 games60% · 149 games
BristlebackAbat
Bristleback
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
45% · 229 games47% · 153 games
Earth SpiritArmel
Earth Spirit
Magnus
MagnusFbz
45% · 110 games54% · 323 games
Shadow DemonPonyo
Shadow Demon
Undying
UndyingJaunuel
54% · 29 games
Lion
LionTims
50% · 190 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 78%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3