DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Nimisterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Batrideroften banned
Jaunuel · 23 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 23 games
Lionsignature
Tims · 23 games
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
Fbz · 16 games
Team Nimister
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Tino- · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
525 picks · 722 bans
Muerta
429 picks · 314 bans
Phoenix
427 picks · 702 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
Bristleback
380 picks · 873 bans
Phantom Assassin
380 picks · 654 bans
Magnus
378 picks · 1011 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nimister
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:24
BOOM Esports 65%Team Nimister 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 45:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterJaCkky
Dragon KnightAbat
Ember SpiritArmel
InvokerYowe
MagnusJabz
MarsTino-
JakiroJaunuel
WindrangerTims
Game 2prediction correct25:8
BOOM Esports 67%Team Nimister 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterJaCkky
MarciAbat
TinyArmel
Storm SpiritYowe
BeastmasterJabz
TerrorbladeTino-
MuertaTims
PhoenixJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 79%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2