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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 22 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 20 games
85%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 16 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 14 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 14 games
86%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
85%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Miposhka · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 11 games
91%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
687 picks · 491 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
482 picks · 988 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
394 picks · 499 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
382 picks · 191 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
361 picks · 675 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 551 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
310 picks · 284 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
308 picks · 633 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
BOOM Esports 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 50:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJaCkky
47% · 207 games53% · 96 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
57% · 132 games51% · 351 game
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
49% · 135 games54% · 29 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Windranger
WindrangerTims
42% · 50 games46% · 100 games
ZeusMira
Zeus
Rubick
RubickSkem
45% · 100 games53% · 48 games
DazzleMiposhka
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed20:25
BOOM Esports 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJaCkky
44% · 209 games45% · 122 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
46% · 158 games49% · 159 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Viper
ViperFbz
50% · 147 games61% · 80 games
EnigmaCollapse
Enigma
Chen
ChenSkem
60% · 68 games48% · 323 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Marci
MarciTims
49% · 184 games48% · 82 games
DazzleMiposhka
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2