PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TTeklaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
Pucksignature
Sancity · 15 games
Tiny
Tims · 15 games
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
Disruptor
Jhocam · 13 games
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
Tekla
Dragon Knight
Yowe · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
441 picks · 418 bans
Snapfire
431 picks · 217 bans
Puck
352 picks · 926 bans
Pugna
327 picks · 369 bans
Warlock
292 picks · 147 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 227 bans
Batrider
280 picks · 670 bans
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Tekla
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
BOOM Esports 69%Tekla 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
GyrocopterAbat
Shadow FiendSancity
Void SpiritYowe
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
SnapfireJhocam
Naga SirenNARMAN
Game 2prediction missed29:44
BOOM Esports 69%Tekla 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Tekla in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterJaCkky
Dragon KnightAbat
LeshracSancity
SniperYowe
DazzleJabz
TuskJhocam
DisruptorNARMAN
Game 3prediction correct24:16
BOOM Esports 67%Tekla 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightJaCkky
BloodseekerAbat
PuckSancity
Storm SpiritYowe
PangolierJabz
WarlockNARMAN
SnapfireJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 83%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3