ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WDWhite Dragonsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
White Dragons
Kunkkaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 3 games
Tusk
Hyko · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
Yor · 3 games
Clockwerk
Yor · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yor · 2 games
Lion
Hyko · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
hFn · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
hFn · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 479 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 425 bans
Lion
264 picks · 233 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 447 bans
Vengeful Spirit
258 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 341 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 708 bans
Magnus
240 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% White Dragons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:10
BOOM Esports 66%White Dragons 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenPakazs
MorphlinghFn
WindrangerILICH-
Lone DruidFCR
Shadow DemonPanda
KunkkaMr.Jeans
48% · 178 games
BatriderHyko
43% · 65 games
Dark WillowYor
Game 2prediction correct28:22
BOOM Esports 62%White Dragons 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautPakazs
LunahFn
MagnusILICH-
Keeper of the LightMr.Jeans
PhoenixPanda
WindrangerFCR
54% · 45 games
HoodwinkYor
56% · 73 games
KunkkaHyko
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 76%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2