?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ARCREDloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
36%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 14 games
79%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ThuG · 13 games
62%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
36%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
ThuG · 11 games
45%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
dEsire · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
ThuG · 10 games
90%

ARCRED

Puck
Puckoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
xsvampire · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
xsvampire · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 442 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 872 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 600 bans
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
365 picks · 478 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
328 picks · 222 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 581 bans
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
298 picks · 352 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:24
Brame 60%ARCRED 40%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarW1sh-
53% · 16 games53% · 78 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
47% · 24 games50% · 76 games
Miranaxsvampire
Mirana
Tusk
TuskThuG
41% · 63 games
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverndEsire
50% · 36 games
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
56% · 15 games
Game 2prediction correct25:24
Brame 60%ARCRED 40%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
58% · 28 games41% · 46 games
ZeusChira JUNIOR
Zeus
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterThuG
little data38% · 55 games
Earth Spiritxsvampire
Earth Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
66% · 24 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
55% · 16 games
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
61% · 33 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 66%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2