Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 5 games
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Alexxo · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
Lichoften banned
Fishman · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Malr1ne · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 4 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 3 games
Mirana
Alexxo · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
119 picks · 264 bans
Mars
115 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
104 picks · 84 bans
Void Spirit
97 picks · 152 bans
Phoenix
93 picks · 96 bans
Rubick
78 picks · 36 bans
Keeper of the Light
72 picks · 137 bans
Nyx Assassin
71 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 82%
Hero pool strength62% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:33
Brame 35%Creepwave 65%
The model gave 65% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinFocus
Monkey KingCrystallis
Dark SeerSkyLark
MarsATF
PugnaW1sh-
InvokerAdzantick
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
MiranaAlexxo
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
AbaddonFishman
Game 2prediction correct29:47
Brame 35%Creepwave 65%
The model gave 65% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordFocus
Wraith KingCrystallis
PuckW1sh-
TidehunterATF
Outworld DestroyerSkyLark
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Elder TitanCTOMAHEH1
GrimstrokeFishman
OracleSsaSpartan
RubickAlexxo
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 75%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2