Brame vs EU Rejects — prediction DPC2S—ЗЕ 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Bramewin 2:0

series probability

67%33%

probability at match start · final 2:0

EU Rejectsloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Shadow Shamansignature

SsaSpartan · 16 games

75%

Viperoften banned

SkyLark · 16 games

56%

Spirit Breakersignature

CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games

73%

Phantom Assassinoften banned

Nefrit · 14 games

43%

Wraith Kingoften banned

Nefrit · 14 games

50%

Invokeroften banned

W1sh- · 13 games

46%

Kunkkasignature

W1sh- · 13 games

62%

Beastmasteroften banned

SkyLark · 12 games

33%

EU Rejects

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

458 picks · 628 bans

48%

Bane

439 picks · 268 bans

57%

Tiny

439 picks · 434 bans

49%

Sand King

409 picks · 560 bans

54%

Storm Spirit

396 picks · 623 bans

56%

Dragon Knight

385 picks · 468 bans

52%

Pangolier

349 picks · 547 bans

53%

Keeper of the Light

328 picks · 638 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%

Hero pool strength53% Brame

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total67% Brame

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct32:28

Brame 59%EU Rejects 41%

The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 47:01.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo