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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'sloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Eternitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

bumble bEE's

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
dnm · 3 games
67%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
ppd · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
dnm · 2 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Sneyking · 2 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 2 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Moo · 2 games
100%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Moo · 2 games
50%

Eternity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 4 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
FrancisLee · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
FrancisLee · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
271 picks · 552 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
244 picks · 310 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
218 picks · 394 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
205 picks · 163 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
177 picks · 553 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
176 picks · 323 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
173 picks · 202 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
170 picks · 225 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% bumble bEE's
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
bumble bEE's 53%Eternity 47%
The model gave 53% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by Eternity in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFear
46% · 12 games56% · 69 games
Wraith KingYamSun
Wraith King
Puck
Puckdnm
52% · 135 games54% · 54 games
Troll WarlordRyoya
Troll Warlord
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMoo
32% · 38 games58% · 58 games
RubickFrancisLee
Rubick
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSneyking
44% · 71 game50% · 104 games
Void SpiritJubei
Void Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantressppd
51% · 29 games
Game 2prediction missed10:31
bumble bEE's 56%Eternity 44%
The model gave 56% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by Eternity in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFear
43% · 6 games23% · 18 games
Outworld DestroyerRyoya
Outworld Destroyer
Puck
Puckdnm
57% · 111 games44% · 23 games
MedusaYamSun
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMoo
71% · 29 games40% · 44 games
RubickFrancisLee
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireSneyking
little data46% · 71 game
Void SpiritJubei
Void Spirit
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magippd
62% · 10 games
Model check result
Model favoritebumble bEE's · 58%
Series resultEternity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2