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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'swin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

bumble bEE's

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Ryoya · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ryoya · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
ppd · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%

Eternity

Lion
Lion
YamSun · 9 games
22%
Mirana
Miranasignature
FrancisLee · 8 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
YamSun · 8 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 7 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
EternaLEnVy · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
469 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 592 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 886 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 305 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 246 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 438 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 405 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Eternity
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total62% bumble bEE's
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:27
bumble bEE's 59%Eternity 41%
The model gave 59% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by Eternity in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaEternaLEnVy
58% · 51 game44% · 108 games
JuggernautYamSun
Juggernaut
Invoker
InvokerRyoya
49% · 55 games45% · 196 games
LionFrancisLee
Lion
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKingrd
56% · 89 games51% · 108 games
ClockwerkJubei
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZfreeK
56% · 172 games
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorMoo
47% · 45 games
Game 2prediction correct32:10
bumble bEE's 55%Eternity 45%
The model gave 55% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreEternaLEnVy
58% · 50 games51% · 61 game
LunaYamSun
Luna
Death Prophet
Death ProphetRyoya
52% · 86 games52% · 132 games
Nyx AssassinFrancisLee
Nyx Assassin
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderKingrd
49% · 29 games46% · 103 games
Ancient ApparitionJubei
Ancient Apparition
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZfreeK
48% · 54 games
Oracle
OracleMoo
45% · 77 games
Game 3prediction correct28:23
bumble bEE's 58%Eternity 42%
The model gave 58% on bumble bEE's — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 48:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaEternaLEnVy
53% · 54 games42% · 99 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Axe
AxeKingrd
46% · 70 games48% · 91 game
TinyFrancisLee
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetRyoya
51% · 77 games52% · 120 games
Ancient ApparitionJubei
Ancient Apparition
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZfreeK
53% · 37 games
Oracle
OracleMoo
59% · 72 games
Model check result
Model favoritebumble bEE's · 62%
Series resultbumble bEE's 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3