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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bushidowin 1:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Secretloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bushido

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Covisnine · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 2 games
50%

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrider
Puppey · 6 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shishak · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
BOOM · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
422 picks · 523 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 360 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 446 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
311 picks · 363 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
299 picks · 567 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
272 picks · 143 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 346 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 942 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Bushido
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:14
Bushido 31%Team Secret 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Bushido in 34:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 69%
Series resultBushido 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1