Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
By_Owl Clubwin 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stariy_Bog Clubloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
By_Owl Club
No games played over 6 months.
Stariy_Bog Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
568 picks · 353 bans
Phoenix
481 picks · 568 bans
Rubick
461 picks · 243 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 376 bans
Pangolier
386 picks · 540 bans
Puck
331 picks · 877 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 811 bans
Tusk
311 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% By_Owl Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% By_Owl Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
By_Owl Club 78%Stariy_Bog Club 22%
The model gave 78% on By_Owl Club — the game was taken by By_Owl Club.
Game 2prediction missed
By_Owl Club 78%Stariy_Bog Club 22%
The model gave 78% on By_Owl Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club.
Game 3prediction correct
By_Owl Club 78%Stariy_Bog Club 22%
The model gave 78% on By_Owl Club — the game was taken by By_Owl Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteBy_Owl Club · 78%
Series resultBy_Owl Club 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3