Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionCC-Generationwin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Uuralanloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
C-Generation
No games played over 6 months.
uralan
Dragon Knightoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rvze · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Underlordoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 650 bans
Tiny
457 picks · 485 bans
Bane
449 picks · 276 bans
Sand King
424 picks · 574 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 435 bans
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 621 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 552 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 804 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% C-Generation
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% C-Generation
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteC-Generation · 58%
Series resultC-Generation 1:0
Series predictioncorrect