?
arrow_backBack to match
Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cascade Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Recast Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 8 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 3 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 2 games
0%

Recast Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Alexxo · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
TANNER · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Alexxo · 2 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Koma` · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Alexxo · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TANNER · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
5up · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
313 picks · 633 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
290 picks · 363 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
253 picks · 434 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
237 picks · 189 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
205 picks · 107 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 612 bans
61%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
197 picks · 393 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
197 picks · 231 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Recast Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Recast Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:36
Cascade Esports 38%Recast Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordtatakae
43% · 25 games55% · 32 games
Phantom AssassinKoma`
Phantom Assassin
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShisui
64% · 6 games61% · 52 games
BeastmasterLastHero-
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsMieRo
44% · 66 games47% · 47 games
PangolierTANNER
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickjAMES
49% · 51 gamelittle data
Bane5up
Bane
Enchantress
EnchantressKidaro
58% · 37 games41% · 54 games
Crystal MaidenAlexxo
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteRecast Gaming · 72%
Series resultRecast Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1