Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 11 games
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Razoroften banned
Shanks · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Molasses · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
480 picks · 666 bans
Tiny
477 picks · 450 bans
Bane
457 picks · 278 bans
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 497 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 654 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 576 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 300 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 17%
Hero pool strength58% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:32
CDEC Gaming 51%LBZS 49%
The model gave 51% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 52:06.
Game 2prediction missed30:43
CDEC Gaming 51%LBZS 49%
The model gave 51% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 44:01.
Game 3prediction missed44:42
CDEC Gaming 51%LBZS 49%
The model gave 51% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 46:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 51%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3