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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
Mark · 7 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 5 games
20%

Lucky Bird

Tiny
Tiny
BlackSoul · 6 games
17%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Rises · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yadomi · 4 games
25%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1010 picks · 682 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 484 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
609 picks · 956 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
559 picks · 438 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 361 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
520 picks · 1175 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
511 picks · 368 bans
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
500 picks · 487 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:34
CDUB Esports 51%Lucky Bird 49%
The model gave 51% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 52:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingDouble King
56% · 33 games46% · 263 games
TerrorbladeRises
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierMark
48% · 190 games54% · 292 games
Dragon KnightBlackSoul
Dragon Knight
Visage
VisageislA
59% · 89 games47% · 261 game
Disruptorempyrean5
Disruptor
Enchantress
EnchantressDuster
46% · 158 games
Tiny
TinySanctified
47% · 346 games
Game 2prediction missed9:36
CDUB Esports 50%Lucky Bird 50%
The model gave 50% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 25:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDouble King
53% · 81 game52% · 143 games
AlchemistRises
Alchemist
Enigma
EnigmaislA
50% · 173 games43% · 430 games
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracMark
53% · 156 games51% · 380 games
Undyingempyrean5
Undying
Tiny
TinySanctified
52% · 367 games
Enchantress
EnchantressDuster
49% · 176 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 52%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2