Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ghost frogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Ghost frogs
Dragon Knight
Tobi · 2 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
j4 · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Tobi · 1 game
Disruptor
j4 · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Crystallis · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
MTD · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Crystallis · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
280 picks · 423 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 396 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 658 bans
Bane
244 picks · 187 bans
Weaver
233 picks · 459 bans
Lina
211 picks · 478 bans
Void Spirit
211 picks · 257 bans
Snapfire
209 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:17
Chicken Fighters 67%Ghost frogs 33%
The model gave 67% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 39:40.
Game 2prediction missed21:25
Chicken Fighters 67%Ghost frogs 33%
The model gave 67% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 33:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 67%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2