Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 993 bans
Void Spirit
364 picks · 532 bans
Mars
349 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
341 picks · 333 bans
Death Prophet
339 picks · 705 bans
Lion
314 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
305 picks · 228 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength62% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Chicken Fighters 42%Hellbear Smashers 58%
The model gave 58% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 29:21.
Game 2prediction correct29:17
Chicken Fighters 42%Hellbear Smashers 58%
The model gave 58% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 38:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 58%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2