Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
Snapfiresignature
Era · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Xibbe · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Bor@nija · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
Bor@nija · 6 games
Juggernaut
Charlie · 5 games
Rubick
Era · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Charlie · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 269 bans
Queen of Pain
387 picks · 496 bans
Weaver
353 picks · 496 bans
Mars
347 picks · 491 bans
Kunkka
285 picks · 476 bans
Wraith King
251 picks · 335 bans
Death Prophet
247 picks · 356 bans
Grimstroke
246 picks · 173 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 27%
Hero pool strength57% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:39
CHILLAX 61%Into The Breach 39%
The model gave 61% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 35:27.
Game 2prediction missed20:37
CHILLAX 61%Into The Breach 39%
The model gave 61% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 29:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 61%
Series resultCHILLAX 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2