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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 25 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 21 game
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 25 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 696 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
479 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
446 picks · 542 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
426 picks · 367 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
418 picks · 1003 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
396 picks · 912 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 760 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:35
Chimera Esports 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 1:11:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracLorenof
46% · 95 games49% · 103 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Marci
MarciTA2000
46% · 126 games43% · 116 games
WindrangerLarl
Windranger
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
53% · 126 games60% · 17 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Muerta
MuertaOneJey
47% · 124 games61% · 75 games
Night StalkerCollapse
Night Stalker
Io
IoPanto
48% · 54 games54% · 214 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct9:36
Chimera Esports 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTA2000
55% · 106 games44% · 60 games
MedusaYatoro
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
49% · 183 games56% · 99 games
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Dazzle
DazzleDaxak
46% · 18 games47% · 71 game
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Techies
TechiesOneJey
48% · 57 games51% · 53 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Silencer
SilencerPanto
52% · 15 games47% · 96 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct29:44
Chimera Esports 33%Team Spirit 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:22:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
49% · 110 games49% · 50 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOneJey
46% · 31 game52% · 47 games
EarthshakerLarl
Earthshaker
Visage
VisageDaxak
50% · 31 game52% · 58 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Tinker
TinkerPanto
47% · 15 games50% · 16 games
Spirit Breakerrue
Spirit Breaker
Lifestealer
LifestealerTA2000
52% · 50 games50% · 66 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3