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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 1:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 9 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 8 games
100%
Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 7 games
86%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Panto · 6 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 5 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
100%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Panto · 5 games
80%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 17 games
35%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 15 games
53%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
31%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 530 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
401 picks · 332 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 386 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 579 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
350 picks · 173 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
344 picks · 430 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 785 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 481 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 60%
Hero pool strength65% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:14
Chimera Esports 80%Zero Tenacity 20%
The model gave 80% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 29:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 80%
Series resultChimera Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1