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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Novus Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud Rising

Axe
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
20%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 5 games
60%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Yumeyume · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Ice Coke · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 3 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sheep · 3 games
67%

Novus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 330 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
342 picks · 467 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
332 picks · 500 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 505 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 640 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
280 picks · 311 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
268 picks · 192 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
259 picks · 275 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Novus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Novus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:11
Cloud Rising 49%Novus Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Novus Gaming — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYumeyume
little data48% · 25 games
Vengeful SpiritRA1NCLOUD
Vengeful Spirit
Doom
DoomIce Coke
52% · 127 games48% · 405 games
HoodwinkRico
Hoodwink
Puck
PuckQ7
49% · 156 games
Bane
BaneUndyne_
55% · 147 games
Game 2prediction missed36:16
Cloud Rising 50%Novus Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Novus Gaming — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 27:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosIce Coke
44% · 38 games46% · 380 games
TinyRA1NCLOUD
Tiny
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYumeyume
46% · 177 games54% · 161 game
LionRico
Lion
Puck
PuckQ7
51% · 227 games
Bane
BaneUndyne_
59% · 99 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNovus Gaming · 53%
Series resultCloud Rising 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2