Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction
Creepwaveseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start
BrameThe prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Marsoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 8 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 7 games
Banesignature
Fishman · 6 games
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
Focus · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
439 picks · 183 bans
Hoodwink
334 picks · 128 bans
Nyx Assassin
314 picks · 628 bans
Puck
313 picks · 680 bans
Ancient Apparition
306 picks · 468 bans
Mars
296 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 346 bans
Lina
261 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 32%
Hero pool strength55% Creepwave
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total68% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 68%