Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 1:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PTPop-it Team XDloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 16 games
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Pop-it Team XD
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
463 picks · 185 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 206 bans
Mars
352 picks · 562 bans
Puck
336 picks · 828 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 469 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
306 picks · 240 bans
Grimstroke
291 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 84%
Series resultCreepwave 1:0
Series predictioncorrect