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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 13 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fishman · 10 games
60%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 647 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
303 picks · 369 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 443 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 196 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
211 picks · 108 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
204 picks · 620 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
201 picks · 235 bans
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
200 picks · 406 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 77%
Hero pool strength61% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:32
Creepwave 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 52:08.
Game 2prediction missed34:18
Creepwave 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Creepwave in 40:40.
Game 3prediction missed36:17
Creepwave 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Creepwave in 32:02.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 55%
Series resultCreepwave 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3