Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Alexxo · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
Lichoften banned
Fishman · 4 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 4 games
Mirana
Alexxo · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Malr1ne · 4 games
Spider Pigzs
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 6 games
Brewmaster
Mitch · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 4 games
Rubick
dnz · 4 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 3 games
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 3 games
Mirana
dnz · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
131 picks · 297 bans
Mars
130 picks · 241 bans
Earth Spirit
117 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
111 picks · 166 bans
Phoenix
102 picks · 109 bans
Keeper of the Light
84 picks · 154 bans
Nyx Assassin
83 picks · 294 bans
Rubick
82 picks · 40 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 58%
Hero pool strength62% Creepwave
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
Creepwave 58%Spider Pigzs 42%
The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
Rikilil pleb
MarsATF
Dragon KnightNo!ob
PuckMalr1ne
Death ProphetMitch
Shadow DemonAlexxo
Rubickdnz
LichFishman
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct42:15
Creepwave 60%Spider Pigzs 40%
The model gave 60% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingCrystallis
Juggernautlil pleb
Sand KingATF
PangolierNo!ob
Void SpiritMalr1ne
ViperMitch
MiranaAlexxo
BrewmasterLeBronDota
Nyx AssassinFishman
Tuskdnz
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 62%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2